TS - Tenaris S.A.
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marcebest
- Inversor Inicial
- Mensajes: 189
- Registrado: 30 Jun 2014 11:48
Re: TS - Tenaris S.A.
Ando con poco tiempo dejo una nota.. Abrazo
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marcebest
- Inversor Inicial
- Mensajes: 189
- Registrado: 30 Jun 2014 11:48
Re: TS - Tenaris S.A.
Fitch Affirms Tenaris S.A.'s FC IDR at 'A-'; Outlook Stable
4 Hours AgoBusiness Wire






COMMENTSStart the Discussion
NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Fitch Ratings has affirmed the foreign currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) of Tenaris S.A. at 'A-'. The Rating Outlook is Stable.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Tenaris' rating is driven by its conservative financial profile, geographically diversified revenues and strong business position. The company's production facilities, revenues and EBITDA are geographically well diversified, reducing its exposure to any one single market. For the first nine months of 2014, the company's largest markets for its welded and seamless tubes were North America (including Mexico) which accounted for 47% of tubes revenues, followed by South America (19%), the Middle East / Africa (20%), Europe (10%) and the Far East and Oceania (4%).
HISTORICALLY CONSERVATIVE TRACK RECORD
The company has a strong track record for maintaining a conservative capital structure. Between 2006 and the latest 12 months (LTM) ended Sept. 30, 2014, Tenaris' total debt to EBITDA ratio averaged 0.7x, while its net debt to EBITDA ratio averaged just 0.1x. In the last five years, the company's leverage levels have strengthened as total debt to EBITDA averaged 0.5x while the company averaged a net cash position of -0.2x. Tenaris plans its liquidity and capital resources to provide adequate flexibility to manage its planned capital spending programs, to service its debt, and to address short-term changes in business conditions.
STRONG CAPITAL STRUCTURE
For the LTM ending Sept. 30, 2014, the company had a total debt to EBITDA ratio of 0.4x and net debt to EBITDA ratio of -0.6x. Fitch expects low leverage levels to continue going forward with the company's total debt to EBITDA ratio remaining under 1.0x through 2018. Funds from operations (FFO) adjusted leverage has been below 1.0x since 2010 and currently stands at 0.6x. Tenaris held cash and cash equivalents of almost USD2.7 billion as of Sept. 30, 2014, an increase on USD900 million versus year-end 2013 (YE13) and 2.5x its short-term financial obligations.
SOLID FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE
Tenaris was able to successfully adapt its capital structure when OCTG demand fell in 2009 and 2010 to maintain its low leverage ratios and strong credit profile. After a strong performance in 2012, 2013-2014 has seen a relative slowdown. This year has seen slower premium OCTG demand, and fierce competition in the low-end market segment. In addition, the dramatic decline in hydrocarbon prices and a destocking of tubular products in Saudi Arabia have contributed to a 2% year-over-year decline in net sales of tubular products in 2014. Despite these challenges, the company's financial performance has remained solid. For the LTM ended Sept. 30, 2014, the company's EBITDA was USD2.72 billion which is only slightly below USD2.79 billion in 2013.
STABILITY DESPITE ENERGY DOWNTURN
Given declining hydrocarbon prices, Fitch anticipates a decline in operational and financial performance for the company in 2015 as the global exploration and production (E&P) industry slows down in 2015. During 2009-2014, worldwide rig counts have grown from 2,300 in 2009 to nearly 3,700 as of early December 2014 (12% annual growth). This has benefited Tenaris' volume growth, however, if price declines persist the level of E&P activity and rig counts should be pared back in 2015.
Fitch's Base Case assumes a continued decline in 2015 driven by lower E&P global activities and the continued destocking in Saudi Arabia which should last through the entire year. Fitch is projecting for EBITDA to decline to USD2.5 billion in 2015, representing a 24% margin. Fitch anticipates a gradual recovery beginning in 2016 as the company's Bay City facility comes on-line, and Tenaris is also able to capture incremental business in Mexico once new post-reform contracts are awarded in the second half of 2015. Long term, Fitch is projecting for Tenaris' margins to return to the current 26% level, with EBITDA generation recovering to a USD3 billion plus level.
POSITIVE FCF
Despite an industry slowdown and aggressive capex program, Fitch expects the company to report positive free cash flow (FCF) in the region of USD400 million in 2014, which is down from USD1.1 million in 2013. The main reason for the decline in FCF is the company's aggressive capex program, highlighted by the USD1.8 billion project to expand its U.S. operations. Despite these elevated capex levels, expected to last during 2014-2016, and assuming continued dividend payments above USD500 million per year, FCF generation for this period should remain positive showing the company's healthy cash flow generation position. The capex program will lead to the installation of a strategically located state-of-the-art seamless pipe mill, heat treatment and premium threading facilities with annual production capacity of 650,000 tonnes of seamless pipes.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
The combination of a number of factors could lead to a positive rating action. These include additional product and service diversification that further minimizes the company's cash flow volatility during cyclical downturns while maintaining strong cash flows and a credit profile consistent with historical levels. The company's large U.S. capex program should further this objective, as could additional acquisitions.
Tenaris' ratings could be negatively affected if its capital structure deteriorates and its conservative financial policies change following a prolonged downturn in the oil and gas industry. A change in its capital structure with net debt to EBITDA exceeding 1.5x on a sustained basis, or deviation from its conservative financial strategy could lead to a rating downgrade.
4 Hours AgoBusiness Wire






COMMENTSStart the Discussion
NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Fitch Ratings has affirmed the foreign currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) of Tenaris S.A. at 'A-'. The Rating Outlook is Stable.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Tenaris' rating is driven by its conservative financial profile, geographically diversified revenues and strong business position. The company's production facilities, revenues and EBITDA are geographically well diversified, reducing its exposure to any one single market. For the first nine months of 2014, the company's largest markets for its welded and seamless tubes were North America (including Mexico) which accounted for 47% of tubes revenues, followed by South America (19%), the Middle East / Africa (20%), Europe (10%) and the Far East and Oceania (4%).
HISTORICALLY CONSERVATIVE TRACK RECORD
The company has a strong track record for maintaining a conservative capital structure. Between 2006 and the latest 12 months (LTM) ended Sept. 30, 2014, Tenaris' total debt to EBITDA ratio averaged 0.7x, while its net debt to EBITDA ratio averaged just 0.1x. In the last five years, the company's leverage levels have strengthened as total debt to EBITDA averaged 0.5x while the company averaged a net cash position of -0.2x. Tenaris plans its liquidity and capital resources to provide adequate flexibility to manage its planned capital spending programs, to service its debt, and to address short-term changes in business conditions.
STRONG CAPITAL STRUCTURE
For the LTM ending Sept. 30, 2014, the company had a total debt to EBITDA ratio of 0.4x and net debt to EBITDA ratio of -0.6x. Fitch expects low leverage levels to continue going forward with the company's total debt to EBITDA ratio remaining under 1.0x through 2018. Funds from operations (FFO) adjusted leverage has been below 1.0x since 2010 and currently stands at 0.6x. Tenaris held cash and cash equivalents of almost USD2.7 billion as of Sept. 30, 2014, an increase on USD900 million versus year-end 2013 (YE13) and 2.5x its short-term financial obligations.
SOLID FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE
Tenaris was able to successfully adapt its capital structure when OCTG demand fell in 2009 and 2010 to maintain its low leverage ratios and strong credit profile. After a strong performance in 2012, 2013-2014 has seen a relative slowdown. This year has seen slower premium OCTG demand, and fierce competition in the low-end market segment. In addition, the dramatic decline in hydrocarbon prices and a destocking of tubular products in Saudi Arabia have contributed to a 2% year-over-year decline in net sales of tubular products in 2014. Despite these challenges, the company's financial performance has remained solid. For the LTM ended Sept. 30, 2014, the company's EBITDA was USD2.72 billion which is only slightly below USD2.79 billion in 2013.
STABILITY DESPITE ENERGY DOWNTURN
Given declining hydrocarbon prices, Fitch anticipates a decline in operational and financial performance for the company in 2015 as the global exploration and production (E&P) industry slows down in 2015. During 2009-2014, worldwide rig counts have grown from 2,300 in 2009 to nearly 3,700 as of early December 2014 (12% annual growth). This has benefited Tenaris' volume growth, however, if price declines persist the level of E&P activity and rig counts should be pared back in 2015.
Fitch's Base Case assumes a continued decline in 2015 driven by lower E&P global activities and the continued destocking in Saudi Arabia which should last through the entire year. Fitch is projecting for EBITDA to decline to USD2.5 billion in 2015, representing a 24% margin. Fitch anticipates a gradual recovery beginning in 2016 as the company's Bay City facility comes on-line, and Tenaris is also able to capture incremental business in Mexico once new post-reform contracts are awarded in the second half of 2015. Long term, Fitch is projecting for Tenaris' margins to return to the current 26% level, with EBITDA generation recovering to a USD3 billion plus level.
POSITIVE FCF
Despite an industry slowdown and aggressive capex program, Fitch expects the company to report positive free cash flow (FCF) in the region of USD400 million in 2014, which is down from USD1.1 million in 2013. The main reason for the decline in FCF is the company's aggressive capex program, highlighted by the USD1.8 billion project to expand its U.S. operations. Despite these elevated capex levels, expected to last during 2014-2016, and assuming continued dividend payments above USD500 million per year, FCF generation for this period should remain positive showing the company's healthy cash flow generation position. The capex program will lead to the installation of a strategically located state-of-the-art seamless pipe mill, heat treatment and premium threading facilities with annual production capacity of 650,000 tonnes of seamless pipes.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
The combination of a number of factors could lead to a positive rating action. These include additional product and service diversification that further minimizes the company's cash flow volatility during cyclical downturns while maintaining strong cash flows and a credit profile consistent with historical levels. The company's large U.S. capex program should further this objective, as could additional acquisitions.
Tenaris' ratings could be negatively affected if its capital structure deteriorates and its conservative financial policies change following a prolonged downturn in the oil and gas industry. A change in its capital structure with net debt to EBITDA exceeding 1.5x on a sustained basis, or deviation from its conservative financial strategy could lead to a rating downgrade.
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Taz
- Inversor Aprendiz
- Mensajes: 749
- Registrado: 28 May 2014 14:52
Re: TS - Tenaris S.A.
Debería haber un rebote en el petróleo de corto.marcebest escribió:Depende i estaba comprado o vendido....fue un claro salto de stops por el.movimiento q tuvo ...lo importante es que me deje la cola sana por un tiempo
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marcebest
- Inversor Inicial
- Mensajes: 189
- Registrado: 30 Jun 2014 11:48
Re: TS - Tenaris S.A.
Depende i estaba comprado o vendido....fue un claro salto de stops por el.movimiento q tuvo ...lo importante es que me deje la cola sana por un tiempo 
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Taz
- Inversor Aprendiz
- Mensajes: 749
- Registrado: 28 May 2014 14:52
Re: TS - Tenaris S.A.
Si, aunque lo lógico sería que los stops estén por debajo de usd 30.marcebest escribió:Mira toca los 30,15 usd el adr y reboto es logico por que seguramente habia muchos stop loss por ese nivel ..cerquita de los 30 ...hay que ver el cierre
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marcebest
- Inversor Inicial
- Mensajes: 189
- Registrado: 30 Jun 2014 11:48
Re: TS - Tenaris S.A.
Mira toca los 30,15 usd el adr y reboto es logico por que seguramente habia muchos stop loss por ese nivel ..cerquita de los 30 ...hay que ver el cierre
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Matute
- Inversor Inicial
- Mensajes: 44
- Registrado: 20 Nov 2014 10:04
Re: TS - Tenaris S.A.
Hola, como están descontando el robinete por supuesto?. Es una gran posibilidad des pues que se alinearon todos los planetas para esta baja, crudo, ccl, tasa de la FED...aparte funcionaria como válvula de escape para Feido, no creo en las brujas pero....marcebest escribió:Interesante a contra mercado y con buen volumen.....
Abrazos.
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Taz
- Inversor Aprendiz
- Mensajes: 749
- Registrado: 28 May 2014 14:52
Re: TS - Tenaris S.A.
Puede ser mi amigo, ojalá.marcebest escribió:Interesante a contra mercado y con buen volumen.....
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marcebest
- Inversor Inicial
- Mensajes: 189
- Registrado: 30 Jun 2014 11:48
Re: TS - Tenaris S.A.
Interesante a contra mercado y con buen volumen.....
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marcebest
- Inversor Inicial
- Mensajes: 189
- Registrado: 30 Jun 2014 11:48
Re: TS - Tenaris S.A.
Y como hace inversor global para ganar plata..... Hay muchos ansiosos por hacer dinero rápido...y pagan para escuchar cualquier cosa.... AbrazoMatute escribió:Como hace Feido para ver el Merval a 15000 puntos si no empujan APBR y TS?. Pura inflación? salvo que antes que se reúnan nuevamente la OPEP a mitad del año que viene tiren una bomba en medio oriente, no se, ajo y agua.